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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd